Source
- URL: https://x.com/NOTimothyLottes/status/2086837153049235551
- Author: NOTimothyLottes (@NOTimothyLottes)
- Posted: 2026-08-10 15:28:43
Thread
1/ @NOTimothyLottes
Been saying this for a decade> Now HU has a really good summary graphic after the fact - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwrDdpkw_oA - HU covers the major points well
(1.) hit the power wall -> long ago
(2.) gains/shrink -> leveled off
(3.) cost/wafer -> exploding
(4.) purchase/time -> drops
Branches: 2026-08-10-SebAaltonen-would-have-looked-even-worse-for-new-gpus-if-they, 2026-08-10-Duoae-i-dont-agree-with-point-2-gains-shrink-are-still, 2026-08-10-Karyuutensei-is-this-nvidias-msrp, 2026-08-10-Raikaru00-i-mean-this-is-cherry-picking-an-almost-refresh, 2026-08-11-AvimanyuRoy3-https-iscaconf-org-isca2018-docs
2/ @NOTimothyLottes
That last bit, is a serious issue, as purchase/time drops one cannot amortize out these {20-25% of total cost} R&D budgets any more.
3/ @NOTimothyLottes
Obviously as much as possible the tech overlords are factoring out as much bubble risk as possible into shell companies designed to take the future bankruptcy burden, while they prepare their mass layoff plans for downsizing. Of course the actual burden falls to the middle class